Engineering consultancy Artelia has launched a major study to optimise flood management and hydropower production across the Lake Victoria–Nile system, as climate variability and rising water levels put increasing pressure on existing operating rules.
The Nile Hydropower Optimization and Flood Management Decision Support System (NHPFM-DSS), commissioned by the French Development Agency (AFD), is being delivered in support of Uganda’s Ministry of Water and Environment. The work focuses on strengthening decision-making tools that govern releases from Lake Victoria, a critical shared resource in East Africa.
Lake Victoria is jointly managed by Uganda, Kenya and Tanzania, while its wider basin extends into Rwanda and Burundi. Water released from the lake feeds the White Nile, with significant downstream implications for South Sudan, Sudan and Egypt, making its regulation a matter of regional importance within the Nile Basin.
Current lake outflows are guided by the long-standing “Agreed Curve” principle, designed to mimic natural flow conditions. However, recent fluctuations in lake levels, increased hydrological variability and growing exposure to flooding have raised concerns about the adequacy of these rules, particularly as hydropower demands continue to rise.
Artelia’s assignment aims to reassess these operating frameworks by analysing alternative release scenarios and their potential impacts. The study will examine hydraulic behaviour, downstream flood risks, and implications for energy production, alongside wider socio-economic consequences.
The project also includes stakeholder consultations and institutional reviews to evaluate the feasibility of updated management approaches. Capacity-building activities, including on-site training, are planned to support local authorities in implementing improved decision-support tools.
By enhancing Uganda’s existing decision support system, the initiative seeks to deliver a more resilient and balanced approach to managing one of Africa’s most strategically important water and energy systems.
