A new spatial planning framework enables has been developed to incorporate reservoir greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions directly into early-stage design and siting decisions
Reservoirs are a recognised source of greenhouse gas emissions, accounting for an estimated 1 to 2% of human-caused emissions globally. These include carbon dioxide (CO₂) and methane (CH₄), with methane having a higher warming potential. Emissions vary widely depending on factors such as climate, vegetation, hydrology and reservoir characteristics.
Conventional practice applies emission estimates post hoc, once dam locations are fixed. The new framework, published in Communications Earth & Environment, embeds spatially resolved emissions modelling into the planning phase. This allows engineers to evaluate multiple dam configurations and portfolios before finalising layouts.
The framework integrates environmental datasets – including land cover, temperature, and hydrological parameters – to estimate emissions at candidate sites. It builds on the GHG Reservoir (G-res) methodology, with extensions for CO₂, CH₄ and N₂O, and automates data acquisition and processing. Implementation in open-source tools supports reproducibility, while explainable AI (xAI) components improve transparency of model outputs.
Myanmar was used as a case study due to its large number of proposed hydropower projects. Many projects remain at the planning stage, allowing researchers to compare how different siting decisions affect emissions outcomes.
The analysis showed that emissions from individual reservoirs varied significantly compared with conventional methods, and that national totals also changed depending on siting choices. Incorporating emissions into early planning enabled the identification of lower-emission portfolios capable of delivering similar levels of electricity generation.
Reported outcomes included annual reductions of approximately 0.9 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent, lower emissions intensity, reduced land use impacts and fewer river barriers.
The study indicates that hydropower emissions are highly site-specific and influenced by planning decisions, and that integrating emissions data at an early stage can reduce overall impacts while maintaining energy output.
